Maxime Tranchard

INRAE - AGROPARISTECH · maxime.tranchard@tse-fr.eu

I completed my Ph.D. in Economics at the French National Institute for Research on Agriculture, Food and the Environment (INRAE) in June 2026, under the supervision of Olivier Allais (INRAE) and Céline Bonnet (TSE). My research lies at the intersection of industrial organization, public health, and policy evaluation. I study how consumers and firms respond to food policies, with a particular focus on nutritional taxation, product reformulation, dietary health outcomes, and inequalities across consumers. I will be on the 2026–2027 academic job market.

Peer-reviewed publications

Background: Excessive sugar consumption is associated with substantial health and economic burdens. Public policies aimed at reducing sugar intake, such as education campaigns and prod- uct labelling, have shown limited effectiveness, prompting growing interest in fiscal measures such as sugar taxes. While taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages have demonstrated reductions in consumption, evidence remains limited regarding their extension to other high-sugar products.

Objective: This study assesses the potential impacts of sugar taxation policies in France, the United Kingdom, and Spain on three key product categories that contribute substantially to sugar intake: non-alcoholic beverages, biscuits, and dairy desserts.

Method: Using nationally representative scanner data and a structural econometric model, we estimate demand, model firm pricing behavior under oligopolistic competition, and simulate the effects of a two-tiered sugar-based tax.

Results: Results indicate that firms generally over-shift the tax to prices, leading to significant reductions in purchases and sugar intake, with the largest impacts observed in non-alcoholic beverages and French dairy desserts. The tax is particularly effective among households with overweight or obese adults. Although consumer surplus and firm profits decline, these losses are outweighed by fiscal revenues and reductions in the social costs of excessive sugar intake. Conclusions: Overall, our findings suggest that extending sugar taxes to other food and drink products can reduce sugar consumption and generate positive welfare effects. We then provide valuable evidence for policymakers considering broader fiscal measures to address diet-related health challenges

Accepted version:

PhD Thesis

Essays on Sugar Taxes, Firm Behavior, and Policy Design
Taxes sur le sucre, comportement des entreprises et élaboration des politiques publiques
Ph.D. dissertation in Economics, 2026

Full thesis:

Reports and Other Publications

Science & Technology in childhood Obesity Policy: D4.3 - Assessment of the potential impacts of new fiscal and regulatory policies on added sugar in Europe

Report:

Work in progress

Policymakers have increasingly implemented nutritional taxes to influence con- sumer behavior toward healthier diets. While theoretical and empirical litera- ture suggests that taxes should be proportional to the harm caused, most taxes implemented to date, including sugar taxes, feature tiered rather than linear de- signs. This discrepancy between theory and practice raises the central question: can tiered sugar taxes, under imperfect competition and market power, be welfare- optimal, and if so, how should their structure be designed? In this paper, we eval- uate the economic performance of tiered sugar tax designs compared to the theo- retically optimal linear tax. Using a welfare maximization framework, we account for externalities from excess sugar consumption, heterogeneous consumption pat- terns, and firms’ strategic pricing behavior. Our findings reveal that tiered tax de- signs, when incorporating strategic responses from firms, can lead to significantly greater welfare improvements than linear taxation or the implemented Soft Drinks Industry Levy in the UK. Specifically, the optimal design features higher taxes on high-sugar products, prompting firms to reduce prices on lower-sugar alternatives. This adjustment not only enhances public health outcomes but also increases con- sumer surplus and preserves firm profitability. These results suggest that tiered sugar taxes can serve as welfare-enhancing policy tools when designed to reflect both consumer heterogeneity and market competition.

Governments are increasingly using food taxes to combat diet-related diseases. While taxes on sugar- sweetened beverages have proven effective, similar measures for other food categories remain underused. This study evaluates the potential effects of a tiered sugar-based excise tax on the French desserts market, covering compotes, yogurts, ”fromage blanc”/”petits suisses” and other dairy desserts, that contribute substantially to sugar intake and show wide variation in sugar content. We estimate a structural demand and supply model that incorporates firms’ strategic pricing responses and the possibility of reformulation under technical and regulatory constraints. Assuming firms reformulate to avoid the tax, we also account for consumer responses to changes in prices and taste. A €0.67 tax on desserts with more than 12 g of sugar per 100 g would reduce purchases by about 10% and sugar intake by 22%. The tax generates inter- and intra-category substitution effects, redirecting demand towards reformulated or initially lower-sugar options. The impact differs across households: more than a quarter of people cut their sugar intake by more than three teaspoons per week. Firms amplify the tax’s effect by passing on more than its value to consumers. Compared to a no-reformulation scenario, taxation combined with reformulation leads to smaller sugar reductions but lowers economic costs for consumers and firms. Reformulation thus plays a decisive role in acceptability, balancing health benefits with social and economic concerns. These findings highlight the need for taxes that incentivize reformulation to achieve health gains while ensuring policy support.

A growing number of countries have introduced taxes on products with high sugar content. Existing empirical evidence has primarily focused on price pass-through and demand responses, showing that the transmission of the tax to retail prices is heterogeneous across products and market environments. However, fiscal policies that target product composition also create incentives for firms to modify product characteristics. Ignoring these quality responses may therefore lead to an incomplete assessment of the effects of such policies. In this paper we develop and estimate a structural demand and supply model that integrates firms’ price and quality responses to sugar taxation in a differentiated-product market. The model allows manufacturers to compete in prices while endogenously adjusting product sugar content, subject to fixed reformulation costs. Using household purchase data from the Kantar WorldPanel combined with detailed nutritional information from the Oqali database, we study the potential implementation of a linear tax on sugar in the French dessert market. Our framework recovers product-level lower bounds on reformulation costs from observed equilibrium behavior and embeds them in a counterfactual analysis of a sugar tax. We show that accounting for endogenous reformulation is crucial. When product characteristics are held fixed, the tax mainly operates through demand reallocation and price adjustments. Once reformulation is taken into account, a large share of the reduction in sugar consumption comes from changes in product composition rather than from substitution across existing products, and the contraction of the market is substantially attenuated. The equilibrium response is highly heterogeneous across product categories and firms, reflecting differences in margins, baseline sugar content, and reformulation costs. These results highlight that the effectiveness of taxes depend not only on prices change but also on firms’ incentives and ability to adjust quality. More generally, the paper provides a tractable structural framework to study quality adjustment in response to fiscal policies in industries where changing product characteristics is infrequent and costly.

The Soft Drinks Industry Levy (SDIL), implemented in the United Kingdom in 2018, introduced a tiered tax on beverages based on their sugar content. This policy was explicitly designed to encourage manufacturers to reformulate products by reducing sugar concentrations. This paper studies how such incentives affect firms’ product design and pricing decisions in a differentiated-product market. Using household scanner data on soft drink purchases, I estimate a random-coefficients demand system that allows consumers to value both price and sugar content while accounting for heterogeneous substitution patterns across products. The demand estimates are combined with a multiproduct Bertrand pricing model to recover marginal costs and equilibrium markups. The analysis then incorporates endogenous reformulation decisions by firms, modeled as discrete adjustments in sugar content that require paying a fixed reformulation cost. I show that the implied reformulation costs vary systematically across products and are larger for products located at the extremes of the sugar distribution. Using the estimated model, I simulate counterfactual equilibria under the SDIL and show that observed reformulation patterns can be partly predicted by the structural model using ex ante information on demand and cost conditions.

Teaching

Toulouse School of Economics

Econometrics with panel data
M.Sc. Stat. and Econometrics
September 2022 - on going

Sorbonne Paris Nord University

Lecture in empirical IO and policy evaluation
M.Sc. Public Health
September 2022 - 2026

AGROPARISTECH

Lecture in empirical IO and policy evaluation
M.Sc. EEET Policy evaluation
December 2023